Several weeks ago Robert Webster gave an interview
to ABC in which he estimated the chances of bird
flu becoming highly contagious were 50%, and that if
it did half of the human race would die.
This occasioned some negative comments in places, yet
I knew I'd seen his name referenced as an expert on
viruses, so I decided to do a little research.
Here's the page on him from his employer:
bird flu virus scientistAnd another article on Robert Webster:
bird flu virus scientist articleI'm not professionally certified to pass judgment on
who's a real scientist or not, but he seemed to me
to have a long set of credentials.
And it's notable that he is the one who discovered
that wild birds are the reservoir for influenza viruses.
Here's a piece written by someone who disagrees:
against the bird flu scientist articleMy opinion is that the above writer is simply expressing
his own opinion. He gives no substantive arguments against
Robert Webster's credentials and accomplishments.
He criticizes the use of "reservoir" to describe wild
birds carrying viruses -- but that is a standard term.
Viruses must have a host which they can infect without
killing or creating a serious disease in, so the virus
can survive. If they kill off every host, the virus
itself must die. I've seen the word "reservoir" used
for this by other people.
I've seen other comments that a scientist should not
be making such predictions. I don't know -- that may
be true but it still seems to me an opinion that
does not invalidate Robert Webster's scientific
status.
I would like to know the basis behind his two
estimates.
How did he arrive at the 50% chance that bird flu
would become a pandemic? It's impossible to
evaluate without knowing the facts and rationale
behind it.
How did he arrive at the 50% of the humanity race
dying figure? It's impossible to evaluate without
knowing the facts and rationale behind it.
So to some extent I can understand the argument that
it's unscientific to put those numbers out there
without explanation. Of course, it could be
that he explained them and ABC edited that out
because it was consisted of facts and figures
and other things that their typical viewer would
find confusing and boring.
Robert Webster apparently has been predicting for
many years that a bird flu virus would cause
another pandemic.
2 Comments:
Hi,
Thanks for alerting us to the dangers of bird flu. I'm storing food in my house!
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